Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 28.395755 31.585834 35.247728 39.826619 45.495188 52.420755 61.755678
2025-03-16 23.799202 27.778295 32.758514 39.670326 49.421447 63.446700 86.945278
2025-03-23 20.757188 25.051322 30.770080 39.370165 52.910560 75.622977 124.117262
2025-03-30 18.626911 23.050462 29.229313 39.146094 56.328944 89.797326 184.787623
2025-04-06 16.819190 21.179804 27.480529 38.092016 57.917442 101.882223 271.150947
2025-04-13 16.108176 20.729793 27.700480 40.211210 66.199219 136.957318 675.691693
2025-04-20 15.018562 19.574749 26.624452 39.783834 69.091061 162.071221 1887.761898
2025-04-27 14.239856 18.794373 26.023830 40.075797 73.824297 202.872932 NaN
2025-05-04 13.601608 18.158985 25.565744 40.526662 79.281814 263.149269 NaN
2025-05-11 12.995622 17.513661 25.001377 40.627925 83.936918 341.346481 NaN
2025-05-18 12.359676 16.765622 24.168172 39.981734 86.070888 419.024370 NaN
2025-05-25 11.895986 16.261198 23.715490 40.095618 90.959044 583.206183 NaN
2025-06-01 11.405662 15.684990 23.086790 39.724223 94.196528 807.784700 NaN
2025-06-08 10.939811 15.119759 22.427502 39.172476 96.610346 1148.285789 NaN
2025-06-15 10.524939 14.614895 21.838033 38.696853 99.252706 1814.756683 NaN
2025-06-22 10.165019 14.181913 21.348888 38.394964 102.683644 3716.961812 NaN
2025-06-29 9.755757 13.641927 20.610023 37.336451 101.981437 6278.811177 NaN
2025-07-06 9.685037 13.682045 21.010822 39.365157 119.218799 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 9.386929 13.306079 20.546181 38.943708 122.498116 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 9.172065 13.065992 20.338783 39.221148 130.839060 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.984112 12.863566 20.191993 39.653947 141.239796 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 8.780565 12.622627 19.945893 39.750622 149.689670 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 8.533578 12.292004 19.487969 39.127037 151.693723 NaN NaN